Live · real capital
Live Track Record
Monthly returns on real capital, net of all commissions, fees, and slippage. Updated on a fixed date each month, append-only: prior months are never restated or removed, and every tracked strategy is shown, including its losing months.
Shown in percent (the dollar capital base is intentionally not published). Cumulative curves are indexed to 100 at each strategy's start.
Starting the clock: July 1, 2026
A live, real-capital record for the three strategies below begins July 1, 2026. This exact strategy set was fixed in a public, timestamped commit on June 15, 2026 — sixteen days before any capital went live — so it was locked on the record before a single result existed. (The earliest a completed July number can appear is early August.) You can check that pre-registration on the Verify page; nothing here is backdated.
July 1 is the first day real capital ran in fresh, dedicated accounts that trade only these three portfolios — one account per strategy, nothing commingled. Earlier versions were built and tested before then, live and on paper, during development. That development period is not part of this record and is not presented as one; July 1 marks the clean, purpose-built start this record measures.
The rules this page is held to:
- All three, every month, including losers. No strategy is ever dropped and no bad month is ever skipped.
- Append-only, never restated.Once a month is posted it's permanent. A script blocks any commit that would edit or delete prior history.
- Fixed cadence. Posted on a set date each month regardless of the outcome.
- Real, net, in percent.Realized returns on the author's own capital, net of all commissions, fees, and slippage. Percentages only; the dollar base stays private.
- Auditable. The data and its full history are version-controlled, so the record — and the timestamp on this very note — can be independently verified.
The timestamp on this note does not have to be taken on trust — see Verify for how to check it independently. This is a transparency exercise about the author's own trading. It is not an offer, not a solicitation, and not investment advice. See Disclosures.
Expected versus actual
What matters is whether the simulations match reality. Whether a strategy made or lost money in any single month is close to irrelevant, because that is not what the statistics predict. What matters is that it did what it was expected to do.
So the column worth judging below is not what the account did. It is the gap.
| July 2026 | Model said | Account did | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growth Equities | -7.9% | -10.8% | -2.3% |
| Intraday Futures Breakout | -7.5% | -7.0% | matched by luck |
| Intraday Breakout | tracked | +2.9% | clean |
| QQQ (Nasdaq-100), same month | · | -6.6% | for context |
Model figures are the same code run over the same July window. July was a down month for the index, and two of these three are meant to lose money in a month like that.
That last row is the point. The market fell 6.6% in July. Two of the strategies were modelled to lose money in a month like that, and they did. The losses are not the story. The gaps are.
Growth Equities
Not all positions were closed before re-initializing, and 80 were left open and untracked. The strategy returned about 2% worse for the month than it should have. That has been cleaned up, and its daily returns have matched simulation since. This one is correlated to the index by design, being a long term strategy, so the loss itself was expected. Straying from simulation early in the month is the real problem, and it matters more than the number.
Intraday Futures Breakout
This one actually lost less money than it was supposed to, which sounds good and is not. It only took 4 of the 11 trades it should have. Warmup issues meant data did not arrive as expected and trading days were missed, and margin was being miscalculated, so orders that should have filled never did. Matching the model by accident is not matching.
Its win/loss ratio is 3.7 and its win rate is 32%. It does not win often, but the payoff is worth it when it does. In practice that feels like a slow bleed and then a large gain, which is not the most fun thing to watch. It is the more volatile of the two intraday strategies. What matters is that it does what it is expected to do.
Both faults are rebuilt and tested. The sizer now works from margin measured against the broker rather than assumed, and over a six and a half year test it takes zero rejected orders across 639 entries, against 18 before. The warmup now tries several data sources and retries every morning until it arms, so a failed start costs one session instead of three weeks. Between July 15 and August 2 it placed no orders at all while the volatility estimate rebuilt itself the slow way. It armed on its own and took its first trade in three weeks on August 3. It is being watched for correct fills before it is trusted again.
Intraday Breakout
+2.9% in July, in a month the Nasdaq-100 fell 6.6%. No rejected orders, no downtime, no divergence from the model.
What makes it work is unglamorous: a 54% win rate and a 1.06 win/loss ratio. It wins slightly more often than it loses and slightly bigger than it loses. That is the whole edge, and it is kind of funny that something that ordinary turns into anything interesting. Its measured beta to the Nasdaq-100 is negative 0.29, so it is not a leveraged version of the index. It is a separate return stream, which is exactly why it can make money in a month the market falls.
What a normal year is supposed to look like
A losing month only means something if you know what the strategy is supposed to do in a bad stretch. So here is what the simulations say to expect in a typical year. These are drawdown episodes, measured peak to trough and counted until the equity curve makes a new high.
| Per year, expect | 5% or worse | 10% or worse | 20% or worse | Worst seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth Equities | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 31.7% |
| Intraday Futures Breakout | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0 | 17.5% |
| Intraday Breakout | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 27.9% |
From backtests: Growth Equities 2020 to 2026, Intraday Futures Breakout 2020 to 2026 on the live configuration, Intraday Breakout 2018 to 2026. Simulated, not realised, and the future is free to be worse.
Read that against July. Growth Equities is supposed to see a 10% or worse drawdown roughly two or three times a year, with a median depth around 16%. So a 10.8% month is not an anomaly, it is Tuesday. Intraday Breakout is supposed to spend a fifth of its years inside a 20% hole. Panic-selling the first time one of these has a bad month would mean trading a completely different strategy than the one tested.
That is the whole reason the expected numbers are written down before the month starts. Otherwise a normal drawdown feels like a broken system, and a broken system feels fine as long as it happens to be up.
How this is judged
Figuring out what actually works is what matters, and capital follows from there. The long term strategy is correlated to the broader market; the intraday strategies supply uncorrelation and a way to make money in other regimes.
The numbers can be hard to wrap your brain around. The job right now is making sure the statistics and the simulations work out as expected.
Growth Equities
View strategy →︎Cumulative · indexed to 100
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | · | · | · | · | · | · | -10.8% | · | · | · | · | · | -10.8% |
Intraday Futures Breakout
This deployment was stopped on 2026-08-12 and no longer trades. Its record stays published: the charter freezes the tracked set at inception, so a strategy is never removed once it has reported, including a losing one.
Cumulative · indexed to 100
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | · | · | · | · | · | · | -7.0% | · | · | · | · | · | -7.0% |
Intraday Breakout
View strategy →︎Cumulative · indexed to 100
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | · | · | · | · | · | · | +2.9% | · | · | · | · | · | +2.9% |
Important disclosures
This site presents the author's own personal, proprietary trading results. It is for informational purposes only and is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security or interest in any fund. No money is being solicited from anyone.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.All results shown are on the author's own capital. Live results are shown net of commissions, fees, and slippage; backtests are models built in QuantConnect and are hypothetical.
Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Commodity trading involves substantial risk of loss.Any futures results shown are proprietary (the author's own trading) and are not combined with anyone else's.
Backtested or hypothetical results shown elsewhere on this site have inherent limitations, do not represent actual trading, and can differ materially from results subsequently achieved. They are clearly labeled as such and are kept separate from the live, real-capital track record.